Decision-making tools based on expected value, Bayes' theorem, and the Kelly criterion.
EV = Σ(probability × payoff). Enter each possible outcome with its probability (0–1) and payoff.
Expected Value
+$25.00
Decision
Positive EV — favorable
| # | Probability | Payoff | Weighted |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50.0% | $150.00 | $75.00 |
| 2 | 50.0% | $-100.00 | $-50.00 |